Bellarmine Knights vs Central Arkansas Bears

This NCAAB matchup features Bellarmine Knights (11-14 (9-3)) traveling to take on Central Arkansas Bears (16-10 (12-1)) at Farris Center, Conway, AR. The C Arkansas hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Bellarmine by 6.1 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, C Arkansas averages 77.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Bellarmine defense typically allows (73.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Bellarmine offense puts up 73.8 PPG and faces a C Arkansas defense allowing 70.8 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and C Arkansas will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects C Arkansas to win by approximately 7.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from C Arkansas winning by 20 to losing by 5. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

C Arkansas enters at 16-10 (12-1), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Bellarmine at 11-14 (9-3). Traveling to face C Arkansas presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.