Loyola Marymount Lions vs Pacific Tigers

This NCAAB matchup features Loyola Marymount Lions (13-14 (9-7)) traveling to take on Pacific Tigers (17-10 (11-1)) at Alex G. Spanos Center, Stockton, CA. The Pacific hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the LMU by 5.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Pacific averages 77.6 points per game, which exceeds what the LMU defense typically allows (72.8 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The LMU offense puts up 74.6 PPG and faces a Pacific defense allowing 70.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Pacific will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Pacific to win by approximately 7.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Pacific winning by 20 to losing by 5. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Pacific enters at 17-10 (11-1), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for LMU at 13-14 (9-7). Traveling to face Pacific presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.