Missouri Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Final Score Missouri 86 - Texas A&M 85
Spread: L
Total: W
Matchup Analysis
This NCAAB matchup features Missouri Tigers (17-7 (13-1)) traveling to take on Texas A&M Aggies (17-7 (12-3)) at Reed Arena, College Station, TX. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
On offense, Texas A&M averages 79.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Missouri defense typically allows (69.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Missouri offense puts up 79.2 PPG and faces a Texas A&M defense allowing 69.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Texas A&M will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Texas A&M to win by approximately 3.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Texas A&M winning by 16 to losing by 9.
Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.
Team Comparison
MIZ Missouri
Stat
TA&M Texas A&M
17-7 (13-1)
Record
17-7 (12-3)
Last 10
79.2
PPG
79.2
69.4
Opp PPG
69.4
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ Missouri Tigers | +245 ↑ | +7.5 ↑ | O 160.5 |
| TA&M Texas A&M Aggies | -305 ↓ | -7.5 ↓ | U 160.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 19, 8:08 PM
Opening line: -6.5 / O/U 157.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ Missouri Tigers | +165 | +3.9 | O 158.4 |
| TA&M Texas A&M Aggies | -165 | -3.9 | U 158.4 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 19, 7:32 PM
Our Picks
Spread
L
Texas A&M (opened at -6.5)
55% Confidence
Total
W
Over (opened at 157.5)
65% Confidence
Recent Trends
Texas A&M has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 17-7 (12-3) record. Their 17-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans.
Missouri comes in with an impressive 17-7 (13-1) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Texas A&M
Advantages
- Strong 17-7 (12-3) overall record this season
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 79.2 PPG
Disadvantages
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Missouri
Advantages
- Strong 17-7 (13-1) overall record this season
- Potent offense averaging 79.2 PPG
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Road fatigue and travel can impact energy levels