Pepperdine Waves vs Saint Mary's Gaels

This NCAAB matchup features Pepperdine Waves (6-20 (5-9)) traveling to take on Saint Mary's Gaels (22-4 (15-0)) at University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA. The Saint Mary's hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Pepperdine by 21.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Saint Mary's averages 81.9 points per game, which exceeds what the Pepperdine defense typically allows (76.5 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Pepperdine offense puts up 69.6 PPG and faces a Saint Mary's defense allowing 67.3 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Saint Mary's will look to leverage their home crowd. The Saint Mary's are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 18.6-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Saint Mary's winning by 31 to winning by 6. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Saint Mary's has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 22-4 (15-0) record. Their 22-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Saint Mary's have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. It's been a difficult season for Pepperdine at 6-20 (5-9). Traveling to face Saint Mary's presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.