UTSA Roadrunners vs East Carolina Pirates

This NCAAB matchup features UTSA Roadrunners (4-20 (2-9)) traveling to take on East Carolina Pirates (8-16 (6-8)) at Minges Coliseum, Greenville, NC. The East Carolina hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the UTSA by 5.9 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. East Carolina averages 71.7 points per game, but they face a UTSA defense that holds opponents to 77.5 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, UTSA scores 68.3 PPG but faces a East Carolina defense that limits opponents to 75.0 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and East Carolina will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects East Carolina to win by approximately 7.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from East Carolina winning by 20 to losing by 5. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

East Carolina has struggled this season at 8-16 (6-8). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for UTSA at 4-20 (2-9). Traveling to face East Carolina presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.