Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs Rider Broncs

This NCAAB matchup features Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (12-15 (6-5)) traveling to take on Rider Broncs (3-21 (3-8)) at Alumni Gymnasium (Rider), Lawrenceville, NJ. The Mount St Marys hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Rider by 11.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Rider averages 67.5 points per game, but they face a Mount St Marys defense that holds opponents to 73.3 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Mount St Marys scores 73.9 PPG but faces a Rider defense that limits opponents to 78.1 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Rider will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Mount St Marys to win by approximately 4.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Rider winning by 8 to losing by 17. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Rider has struggled this season at 3-21 (3-8). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Mount St Marys at 12-15 (6-5). Traveling to face Rider presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.