Texas State Bobcats vs South Alabama Jaguars

This NCAAB matchup features Texas State Bobcats (17-11 (15-1)) traveling to take on South Alabama Jaguars (19-8 (8-2)) at Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL. The South Alabama hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Texas St by 3.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, South Alabama averages 79.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Texas St defense typically allows (70.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Texas St offense puts up 77.1 PPG and faces a South Alabama defense allowing 69.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and South Alabama will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects South Alabama to win by approximately 6.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from South Alabama winning by 19 to losing by 6. The market has this game at -3.5, but our model sees value on South Alabama with a 2.7-point edge. Our line: South Alabama -6.2. Combined with the total projection of 156 versus the market line of 138.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

South Alabama has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 19-8 (8-2) record. Their 19-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. Texas St sits at 17-11 (15-1) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.