UT Martin Skyhawks vs Little Rock Trojans

This NCAAB matchup features UT Martin Skyhawks (20-8 (11-2)) traveling to take on Little Rock Trojans (10-17 (5-4)) at Jack Stephens Center, Little Rock, AR. The UT Martin hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Little Rock by 12.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Little Rock averages 72.4 points per game, which exceeds what the UT Martin defense typically allows (69.3 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The UT Martin offense puts up 79.3 PPG and faces a Little Rock defense allowing 74.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Little Rock will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects UT Martin to win by approximately 4.6 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Little Rock winning by 8 to losing by 17. The market has this game at +2.5, but our model sees value on UT Martin with a 2.1-point edge. Our line: Little Rock +4.6. Combined with the total projection of 152 versus the market line of 134.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Little Rock has struggled this season at 10-17 (5-4). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. UT Martin comes in with an impressive 20-8 (11-2) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.