Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte Hornets
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Final Score Hawks 107 - Hornets 110
Spread:
Total: L
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Atlanta Hawks (26-30 (10-15)) traveling to take on Charlotte Hornets (26-29 (12-14)) at Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
On offense, Hornets averages 74.5 points per game, which exceeds what the Hawks defense typically allows (73.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Hawks offense puts up 74.3 PPG and faces a Hornets defense allowing 72.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Hornets will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Hornets to win by approximately 3.8 points.
Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.
Team Comparison
ATL Hawks
Stat
CHA Hornets
26-30 (10-15)
Record
26-29 (12-14)
Last 10
74.3
PPG
74.5
73.0
Opp PPG
72.9
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | +110 ↓ | +2.5 ↓ | O 235.5 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | -130 ↑ | -2.5 ↑ | U 235.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 19, 8:09 PM
Opening line: -5.5 / O/U 231.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | +282 | +3.8 | O 147.3 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | -282 | -3.8 | U 147.3 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 19, 7:32 PM
Our Picks
Spread
Pass
Model: -3.8 | Edge below threshold
Total
L
Over (opened at 231.5)
60% Confidence
Recent Trends
Hornets has struggled this season at 26-29 (12-14). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset.
It's been a difficult season for Hawks at 26-30 (10-15). Traveling to face Hornets presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Hornets
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 26-29 (12-14) raises concerns
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Hawks
Advantages
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 26-30 (10-15) record this season