Miami Heat vs New Orleans Pelicans

This NBA matchup features Miami Heat (29-27 (16-11)) traveling to take on New Orleans Pelicans (15-41 (9-20)) at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA. The Heat hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Pelicans by 8.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Pelicans averages 70.4 points per game, but they face a Heat defense that holds opponents to 72.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Heat scores 75.4 PPG but faces a Pelicans defense that limits opponents to 76.0 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Pelicans will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Heat to win by approximately 6.0 points. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Pelicans has struggled this season at 15-41 (9-20). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Heat sits at 29-27 (16-11) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.