Evansville Purple Aces vs Southern Illinois Salukis

This NCAAB matchup features Evansville Purple Aces (6-20 (4-8)) traveling to take on Southern Illinois Salukis (12-14 (7-5)) at Banterra Center, Carbondale, IL. The S Illinois hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Evansville by 8.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. S Illinois averages 74.2 points per game, but they face a Evansville defense that holds opponents to 76.5 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Evansville scores 69.6 PPG but faces a S Illinois defense that limits opponents to 73.1 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and S Illinois will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects S Illinois to win by approximately 9.0 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from S Illinois winning by 22 to losing by 4. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

S Illinois has struggled this season at 12-14 (7-5). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Evansville at 6-20 (4-8). Traveling to face S Illinois presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.