Memphis Tigers vs North Texas Mean Green

This NCAAB matchup features Memphis Tigers (12-12 (10-3)) traveling to take on North Texas Mean Green (14-11 (10-4)) at The Super Pit, Denton, TX. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, North Texas averages 76.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Memphis defense typically allows (72.5 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Memphis offense puts up 75.0 PPG and faces a North Texas defense allowing 71.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and North Texas will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects North Texas to win by approximately 5.1 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from North Texas winning by 18 to losing by 7. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

North Texas enters at 14-11 (10-4), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Memphis sits at 12-12 (10-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.