Auburn Tigers vs 21 Arkansas Razorbacks

This NCAAB matchup features Auburn Tigers (14-11 (9-3)) traveling to take on No. 21 Arkansas Razorbacks (19-6 (14-1)) at Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR. The Arkansas hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Auburn by 7.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Arkansas averages 80.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Auburn defense typically allows (71.6 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Auburn offense puts up 76.2 PPG and faces a Arkansas defense allowing 68.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Arkansas will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Arkansas to win by approximately 8.7 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Arkansas winning by 21 to losing by 4. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Arkansas has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 19-6 (14-1) record. Their 19-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Arkansas have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Auburn sits at 14-11 (9-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.