Samford Bulldogs vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers

This NCAAB matchup features Samford Bulldogs (15-12 (9-3)) traveling to take on East Tennessee State Buccaneers (19-8 (13-3)) at Freedom Hall (TN), Johnson City, TN. The ETSU hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Samford by 5.3 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, ETSU averages 79.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Samford defense typically allows (71.7 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Samford offense puts up 76.1 PPG and faces a ETSU defense allowing 69.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and ETSU will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects ETSU to win by approximately 7.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from ETSU winning by 20 to losing by 5. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

ETSU has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 19-8 (13-3) record. Their 19-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. Samford sits at 15-12 (9-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.