Colorado Buffaloes vs 22 BYU Cougars

This NCAAB matchup features Colorado Buffaloes (14-12 (11-4)) traveling to take on No. 22 BYU Cougars (19-6 (12-2)) at Marriott Center, Provo, UT. The BYU hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Colorado by 7.7 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, BYU averages 80.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Colorado defense typically allows (71.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Colorado offense puts up 75.8 PPG and faces a BYU defense allowing 68.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and BYU will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects BYU to win by approximately 9.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from BYU winning by 22 to losing by 3. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

BYU has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 19-6 (12-2) record. Their 19-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the BYU have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Colorado sits at 14-12 (11-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.