Delaware Blue Hens vs Missouri State Bears

This NCAAB matchup features Delaware Blue Hens (9-16 (4-8)) traveling to take on Missouri State Bears (13-12 (10-5)) at Great Southern Bank Arena, Springfield, MO. The Missouri St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Delaware by 5.6 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Missouri St averages 75.4 points per game, which exceeds what the Delaware defense typically allows (74.6 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Delaware scores 72.2 PPG but faces a Missouri St defense that limits opponents to 72.2 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Missouri St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Missouri St to win by approximately 7.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Missouri St winning by 20 to losing by 5. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Missouri St enters at 13-12 (10-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Delaware at 9-16 (4-8). Traveling to face Missouri St presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.