SharpBetz
NCAAB

Georgia State Panthers vs Old Dominion Monarchs

Saturday, February 14, 2026

Final Score Georgia St 55 - Old Dominion 78
Spread: W Total:

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Georgia State Panthers (9-18 (6-4)) traveling to take on Old Dominion Monarchs (9-18 (6-6)) at Chartway Arena, Norfolk, VA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Old Dominion averages 71.7 points per game, but they face a Georgia St defense that holds opponents to 75.0 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Georgia St scores 71.7 PPG but faces a Old Dominion defense that limits opponents to 75.0 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Old Dominion will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Old Dominion to win by approximately 3.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Old Dominion winning by 16 to losing by 9. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Team Comparison

GAST Georgia St
Stat
ODU Old Dominion
9-18 (6-4)
Record
9-18 (6-6)
Last 10
71.7
PPG
71.7
75.0
Opp PPG
75.0

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
GAST Georgia State Panthers
+154 +3.5 O 147.5
ODU Old Dominion Monarchs
-185 -3.5 U 147.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 19, 8:03 PM
Opening line: -3.5 / O/U 146.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
GAST Georgia State Panthers
+155 +3.4 O 143.4
ODU Old Dominion Monarchs
-155 -3.4 U 143.4
Source: Model Updated: Feb 19, 7:18 PM

Our Picks

Spread W
Old Dominion (opened at -3.5)
55% Confidence
Total
Pass
Model: 143.4 | Edge below threshold

Recent Trends

Old Dominion has struggled this season at 9-18 (6-6). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Georgia St at 9-18 (6-4). Traveling to face Old Dominion presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Old Dominion

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 9-18 (6-6) raises concerns
  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Georgia St

Advantages

  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 9-18 (6-4) record this season