13 Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes

This NCAAB matchup features No. 13 Purdue Boilermakers (21-4 (11-2)) traveling to take on Iowa Hawkeyes (18-7 (13-2)) at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA. The Purdue hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Iowa by 4.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Iowa averages 79.4 points per game, which exceeds what the Purdue defense typically allows (67.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Purdue offense puts up 81.8 PPG and faces a Iowa defense allowing 69.2 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Iowa will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 1.1-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Iowa winning by 14 to losing by 11. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Iowa has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 18-7 (13-2) record. Their 18-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. Purdue comes in with an impressive 21-4 (11-2) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.