South Carolina Upstate Spartans vs Longwood Lancers

This NCAAB matchup features South Carolina Upstate Spartans (11-16 (8-5)) traveling to take on Longwood Lancers (14-14 (10-4)) at Joan Perry Brock Center, Farmville, VA. The Longwood hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the SC Upstate by 3.3 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Longwood averages 75.0 points per game, which exceeds what the SC Upstate defense typically allows (73.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The SC Upstate offense puts up 73.1 PPG and faces a Longwood defense allowing 72.5 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Longwood will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Longwood to win by approximately 5.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Longwood winning by 18 to losing by 7. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Longwood enters at 14-14 (10-4), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for SC Upstate at 11-16 (8-5). Traveling to face Longwood presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.