South Alabama Jaguars vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

This NCAAB matchup features South Alabama Jaguars (19-7 (8-2)) traveling to take on Arkansas State Red Wolves (16-11 (9-4)) at First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR. The South Alabama hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Arkansas St by 4.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Arkansas St averages 76.9 points per game, which exceeds what the South Alabama defense typically allows (69.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The South Alabama offense puts up 79.6 PPG and faces a Arkansas St defense allowing 71.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Arkansas St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 0.5-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Arkansas St winning by 13 to losing by 12. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Arkansas St enters at 16-11 (9-4), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. South Alabama comes in with an impressive 19-7 (8-2) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.