UMBC Retrievers vs New Hampshire Wildcats

This NCAAB matchup features UMBC Retrievers (16-8 (9-2)) traveling to take on New Hampshire Wildcats (8-16 (7-4)) at Lundholm Gymnasium, Durham, NH. The UMBC hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the New Hampshire by 11.6 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, New Hampshire averages 71.7 points per game, which exceeds what the UMBC defense typically allows (70.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The UMBC offense puts up 78.3 PPG and faces a New Hampshire defense allowing 75.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and New Hampshire will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects UMBC to win by approximately 4.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from New Hampshire winning by 8 to losing by 17. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

New Hampshire has struggled this season at 8-16 (7-4). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. UMBC sits at 16-8 (9-2) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.