Davidson Wildcats vs Dayton Flyers

This NCAAB matchup features Davidson Wildcats (15-10 (9-6)) traveling to take on Dayton Flyers (16-9 (12-2)) at UD Arena, Dayton, OH. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, Dayton averages 77.8 points per game, which exceeds what the Davidson defense typically allows (71.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Davidson offense puts up 77.0 PPG and faces a Dayton defense allowing 70.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Dayton will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Dayton to win by approximately 4.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Dayton winning by 17 to losing by 8. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Dayton enters at 16-9 (12-2), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Davidson sits at 15-10 (9-6) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.