Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs Alabama State Hornets

This NCAAB matchup features Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (1-25 (1-8)) traveling to take on Alabama State Hornets (9-17 (5-2)) at Dunn-Oliver Acadome, Montgomery, AL. The Alabama St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Miss Valley St by 10.7 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Alabama St averages 71.9 points per game, but they face a Miss Valley St defense that holds opponents to 79.4 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Miss Valley St scores 65.8 PPG but faces a Alabama St defense that limits opponents to 74.8 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Alabama St will look to leverage their home crowd. The Alabama St are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 10.7-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Alabama St winning by 23 to losing by 2. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Alabama St has struggled this season at 9-17 (5-2). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Miss Valley St at 1-25 (1-8). Traveling to face Alabama St presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.